Six matches into the Premier League season and Fulham sit undefeated; five draws and a single win.
An odd beginning to the season to be sure, but one that provides at least two clear opportunities to subvert the field of statistical analysis for my own amusement.
Let’s take six week’s worth of information to extrapolate over a thirty-eight match season to draw an irreproachable conclusion. Hey, the news media does it all the time, so it must be a completely valid and worthwhile approach to predicting the future.
Scenario #1– Fulham Go Undefeated (Well, this is just too tempting to pass up.) You could approach this from two angles:
a) One win and five draws every six matches;
b) one win and three draws every four matches (we defeated Wolves in our fourth match).
One assumes a pattern. The other assumes no pattern. Hmmm, let’s just do both!
a) This could result in six or seven wins depending on how they fall, so we’d be looking at either 50 points (6-32-0) or 52 points (7-31-0). Either of those point totals would put us solidly mid-table, but might even garner a Europa League spot.
b) This is the far more appealing scenario as it would guarantee nine wins, so we’d finish the season with 56 points (9-29-0). Again, solidly mid-table and a Europa League spot even more likely.
Heartwarming, isn’t it. Little old Fulham join Arsenal as the only undefeated Premier League side (take it easy PNE supporters, I said Premier League), while obliterating the record for most draws in a season.
Ah, wait, the six-match projection applied to Man United would also have them going undefeated this season and thus raining on our parade. Oh well, who cares!
Scenario #2 – Fulham Continue Our Win Rate, Regardless of Draws (Scary, scary thought.)
Same two approaches from Scenario #1 apply:
a) six/seven win season;
b) nine win season.
a) To say that six or seven wins would be an impediment to maintaining our Premier League status would be an understatement. However, West Brom managed to stay up in 2004-05 with only six wins, so it’s not impossible. Just keep those draws coming lads!
b) Well, nine wins is much more manageable. Why on two separate occasions, Fulham has managed to keep our Premier League status with only eight wins (2006-07, 2007-08), so nine wins is a cake walk. Virtually every season, a nine win team keeps their Premier League status. Again, keep those draws coming lads! There you have it.
Here’s to wasting your time with useless, but unimpeachable statistical analysis (and fortune telling) courtesy of Teddy_KGB.
Cheers.
Vital Fulham on:
Vital Fulham on:
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